Tucson, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

418
FXUS65 KTWC 101000
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 AM MST Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances are forecast each afternoon and
evening through the coming week, though there will be day to day
variability in these chances. High temperatures will generally
remain above normal through the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar was showing isolated showers and thunderstorms
north of Tucson. These will continue to gradually diminish over
through sunrise. Last nights northern Sonora MCS sent a large
outflow boundary north and west with gusts up to 45 mph at Rocky
Point and initiated a gulf surge with Yuma radar showing southerly
winds 30-40 knots up to 3000 feet with Yuma`s dewpoint jumping
into the mid 70s. Also of interest in radar and infrared satellite
imagery showed a possible weak MCV across the Intl border south
of Sierra Vista.

For today: With tail end of trof moving through the Rockies,
the steering flow of scattered thunderstorms today will be out of
the N/NW. Isolated heavy rainers and strong gusty winds,
especially south and east of Tucson.

Monday: Upper high centered near Reno, the mid-level flow will be
out of the N keeping best chances of afternoon/evening convection
mainly east and south of Tucson.

The remainder of the new week will see daily storm chances with
day-to-day variability in areal coverage of storms.

Above normal high temperatures will continue for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z
Isolated showers/storms diminishing this morning, then
redeveloping this afternoon and becoming scattered in areal
coverage. Gusty winds up to 45 kts possible near thunderstorms.
Otherwise surface winds away from outflows mostly less than 15
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will remain several degrees
above normal through the coming week. Daily chances for
thunderstorms and wetting rains through the week with daily
variability in coverage and intensity. Min RHs will generally be
around 14-22 percent in the lower elevations and 20-30 percent in
the mountains. Winds will generally be less than 15 mph with
typical afternoon gusts up to 20 mph into the new week, though
stronger northwesterly winds possible in the Gila River Valley
through early this coming week with afternoon gusts up to 35 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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