Tucson, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

723
FXUS65 KTWC 062042
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
142 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures today with occasional breezes. A
brief warm up through the most of the weekend. Moisture will
begin to make its way into the region late this weekend with
chances for showers increasing, especially Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon, a broad trough sits over the western to central
United States with several embedded shortwaves rotating through
its base. Over the next several days, a shortwave currently moving
over the Great Basin will drop south and close over the northern
Baja peninsula. This closed low will linger over northern Baja
into early next week, with its exit providing a forecast
challenge. Recent run to run model trends have slowed the exit of
this low, which is common with closed lows. Precipitation chances
are now mainly Monday into Tuesday, however light shower chances
start as early as late Sunday as moisture wraps into southeastern
Arizona. A further delay cannot be ruled out with this closed low
pattern. Overall rainfall amounts will likely fall within
0.15-0.45" with higher amounts in the mountains. With a lack of
cold air aloft, snow chances are low with minimal accumulation
confined to mountain peaks.

The temperature trend will see highs rise to around 10 degrees
above normal by Sunday with a modest cooling by Tuesday as the
upper low crosses the region. Ensembles are in good agreement with
a ridge building behind the previous low, bringing high
confidence in temperatures becoming well above normal by the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.

Mainly SKC with periods of FEW-SCT high level cirrus. Surface wind
west to northwest 8-14 kts with gusts up to 25 kts through 07/02Z.
Winds then light and terrain driven. Winds become south to
southeasterly after 07/18Z 8-14 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Cooler temperatures today with a warming trend
through early Sunday. Today`s winds will be west to northwesterly
up to 15 mph with strong gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Easterly to
southeasterly winds return on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday morning
will be the breeziest for the weekend. Late Sunday, a weather
system will begin to bring modest moisture and increasing chances
for rain showers and lingering through the first half of the new
week. The highest chances for rain showers will be between early
Monday morning through Tuesday. Towards the second half of the
week, the region will be in a warming and drying trend.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Meyer/Edwards
Aviation...Meyer/Edwards
Fire Weather....Meyer/Edwards

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